Prospecting Prospects: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyus Jones, and Trey Lyles

Let’s face it: mock drafts are colossal wastes of time. There is absolutely no telling what any given team will do, particularly as trades inevitably shake everything all up. Yet…

We can’t help but be curious.

The draft, much like its lottery, embodies possibility: the possibility that your team will find a new face for its franchise, or that a new cog affixed within a contender will get its teeth in alignment and put everything in motion. Unfortunately, it is still an inexact science; there will be screw-ups. Potentially debilitating ones. Judging talent by the measurables and performances of prospects against players without the skills and knowledge of professionals runs the risk of one certainty: things won’t be the same at the next level. Roles will change, as will the competition. So your team drafted the strongest guy in the college game? Good for you. Just remember, he became the strongest after last year’s draft brought two others out of school and into the pros, though they were knocked around pretty easily. Oh, and that powerful frame won’t be able to stay on the court for long without knowing how to properly use it. And extensive conditioning. Dedication and adaptability determine success just as much as skill, but it sometimes just can’t be observed until the players are put into a position where failure is a real possibility.

As fans, we invest too much interest in the draft, but again, it can’t be helped. We want to catch a glimpse of our teams’ future potential as soon as possible, so we are bound to be overeager as the draft approaches and bury prospects in adulation and expectation before they even don a jersey.

In this post, however, I wish to focus on players that may be on a lot of fans’ radars as they seemingly bounce all over mock drafts throughout the internet — not with the burden of team-oriented fandom, but as a fan of these particular prospects; I am likely to watch them when I get the chance, wherever they end up. And while these players come from major universities across the country (and conferences), each of their games bear a resemblance to a Memphis Grizzly — at least as I see it.

To keep this orderly, I’ll be addressing the prospects alphabetically. This shouldn’t be misconstrued as a suggestion that any one player should go ahead of the other; I am privy to no greater knowledge about these players or interested teams than anyone that might happen upon these words. That is to say, public information is woefully lacking whenever considering any executive decision. Also, as these players are relatively high-profile, I won’t depend upon statistics and supply measurements; if you’re reading this, you probably have seen these players a few times. As noted before, those numbers have no immediate translation to the next level anyway. Alright, that’s enough of a disclaimer — onward to basketball matters!

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is something of an enigma: he is versatile, yet a liability. Projected as a small forward, his defensive ability is nearly enough to earn him a rotational position for a steady career as a professional, with the feet and frame that suggest he should be able to guard 1-(stretch)4. He knows how to use his length as an on-ball defender on the perimeter, and does not surrender points in the paint even if he gets beat off the dribble. Unfortunately, his offensive game is an absolute question mark as whatever team gets a hold of him may force an overhaul of his jump shot. As of now, teams will not need to respect him in the corner, nor is he a threat with the ball in his hands. However, he is able to generate offense in transition opportunities and second chance points; his defense can create fast-breaks and leaving him alone on offense will making crashing the glass (a tendency and skill he already possesses) all the easier. Teams looking to draft Hollis-Jefferson will surely understand that they can’t expect his offensive contributions to be available every game — he capitalizes on the opponents’ mistakes — but he can effect games, even if it can’t be seen in the box score. Looking for an NBA comparison, I believe he is most like Tony Allen right now, an irritant that will fly all over the court for the ball, but one you worry about once he has it. Of course, Allen is an All-NBA defender so that is far too much to expect out of Hollis-Jefferson right now, but he fits that sort of mold, except with size closer to Andre Iguodala.

Next, we have my favorite player in college last year: Tyus Jones. While Jahlil Okafor drew the media attention, Jones was a highly touted recruit in his own right, and integral to Duke’s championship run. He is an intelligent conductor of the offense who knows when, and how, to get his own and when to distribute. Despite presumed athletic deficiencies, he simply controls the offense better than most point guards with his experience, fluidly changing paces. But while those athletic deficiencies are overblown, he will certainly be challenged by NBA point guards. He has capable hands able to agitate dribbles and anticipates passing lanes well, but he can be beat by a good first step — something most points guards have at that level. And this issue is complicated by his size; he can’t be hidden easily by changing his defensive responsibility as most players at other positions will have a major height (and probably weight) advantage. Even so, Jones is a proficient game manager on the offensive end. Though he doesn’t match in terms of athleticism or defensive prowess, I see a lot of Mike Conley in Jones. Conley is hardly ever celebrated, but is a fantastic point guard that facilitates his bigs very well and has developed his game off the ball. Jones grew up playing with Okafor and already has proven his shooting range. If not for the size difference (and Jones’ shooting ability), I would be compelled to compare him to Andre Miller.

Lastly, Trey Lyles is an enticing mix of size and offensive skill. The crowding in Kentucky’s frontcourt forced Lyles to split his time at both forward positions, and flexibility is never a bad thing in the NBA. However, most analyses suggest he will be cast as a stretch four, with possible minutes to be found at center in small-ball situations. That is somewhat reasonable; his game is best suited for the baseline. But he plays much smoother than would be expected of most power forwards; his footwork and dribbling makes him more than a catch-and-shoot prop waiting in the corner — he’s actually not a strong three point shooter, though the form is there — as he is able to drive and back-down well. He can operate on his own, yet remains aware of his teammates’ movement while in iso and is a willing passer. His defense, though, is slightly more problematic to judge, not for his own play, but because he played alongside Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl Anthony-Towns. His defensive tendencies may have been effected by the knowledge that help would be imminent. With that said, he accepted the challenge of playing out of position, and the only real problem was matching explosiveness. Struggling against more athletic players could pose an enormous issue in the NBA, but it should be mitigated once shifted back against bigs. Considering that he is slated to play power forward and center instead of both forward positions, my comparison is less useful towards projecting his pro game, but Lyles reminded me of Jeff Green during his collegiate career. He can open up the court and make for a reliable post-scorer. Paul Millsap may be more reasonable, but again, I mean that in terms of play style; Millsap has developed substantially throughout his career and it would be ridiculous to suggest that Lyles is prepared to perform in the NBA at the All-Star level.

That goes for every rookie: they are rookies! We celebrate them similar to a child: they harness potential, but it is ultimately up to the maturation process whether or not we ever see anything more than that. Some mature swiftly, then plateau. Some are late bloomers. Some never blossom at all. And even knowing that, we will sit and wait for whatever name(s) Adam Silver announces for our teams on June 25, then pile on the pressure to see what our future holds. After all…

We can’t help but be curious.